ExpertDabbler

Tata Motors, with a debt of $2Billion USD, and which was trading at 130 Rs. two months back, closed upwards of Rs.360 today.

What has changed so fundamentally in the last two months which did not happen in 2008? What has happened so dramatically in the last few days to warrant a 2000 point spurt in the BSE sensex ? Manmohan was the PM(at least on paper) in March first week 2009. The left was not in control even in March. He is the next PM (at least on paper) again. Hopefully with more teeth this time.
The ‘divestment’ - ‘kooru pottu vikradhu’ of profitable govt. companies which the markets are so anticipating since ages has not happened, nor is there any guarantee it will happen very soon nor is it any more desirable than militant trade unionism of the left.

So whats different to warrant such a dramatic change in outlook? Nothing.
I am told its all about ‘market sentiment’. What has sentiment got to do in a rational, efficient market? Are not sentiment and EMH related to each other in the same way as a god man is to Thi. Ka?
Lunatics drive the market either way. If one can deal with lunatics in life, one can die a rich man.

For all the imperfections in the voting systems, I do not mind this election result for a few reasons.

- This election has taught a lesson or two to PMK - a party with saints like ‘Kolathur Mani’ and ‘Kaduvetti Guru’ (pthooo!)
- I hope people like Ameer and Seeman would concentrate more on their next film projects.
- Vijaykanth did his spoiler act again as did Chiranjeevi in Andhra. Coming to think of it, there is nothing to be ashamed about their performance in these elections. I never thought DMDK would get deposits in most of the constituencies. It turns out they did far better than that. With a maturity that belies his stint in politics, Chiraneevi has a bright future in politics.
- Junior Vikatan and Kumudam reporter will be back to their old tricks of writing steamy tales about actresses, kannada prasad, Seevalaperi Pandi etc. We need their service since most of the tamil mahajanam find it embarassing to read straight porn at home.
- Most of the ‘tamil ina unarvalrgal’ in tamil blogosphere will return to their old tricks of bashing the brahmin community to entertain themselves. ‘Ennadhu Aavin booth la paal varalaya? Blame it on the brahmins!’. (I dont want to spit for now, will do after some ‘anony’ comments).

P Chidambaram, T R Baalu, not to mention MK and Sonia Gandhi will have to thank Vijaykanth for this result in TN. I am afraid they will thank him again in 2011 if he does not get the poll alliance arithmetic right. A high school crash in course basic mathematics, probability and statistics will do more good for Vijaykanth than all the money spent on astrologers.
Half the makkal in’Makkal oda kootani’ do not come to vote, leave alone election work.

Regarding the much abused ‘Tamizh ina unarvu’, I have not read much on the origin of civilizations, on factors like culture, language, tradition and how they evolve, how people migrate from one place to another, etc. I do not know what is mere herd instinct and what is in-born feeling and what is implanted by an overdose of ideology and rhetoric. I am very sceptical about gaining those perspectives by mere observation, these concepts take a long time to evolve.

I kinda know with some confidence that the Indian born Tamils in US or Canada in due course (next generations) will feel less concerned about the Tamils in India. Its no fault of them. Thats how it will be, thats how it has always be. I don’t think any of the desi Citizens in US (the tamils) will vote for their US president based on a TN specific issue (say civil war in chennai in 2050).

Except for countries like Canada and Australia and the nordic, no country is a saint in foreign policy, just as no political party is a saint within the country.

If calling all the tamils in Tamil Nadu and Indians in general as ‘pinam thinni’, ‘naaigal’, ‘ ‘animals’ etc will help some good cause, we do not care. Since all humans are this and much more in their minds, with no exceptions as a matter of fact.

Since i do not have political ambitions, nor do i want to be featured in Ju.Vi, Aa,vi, Kotaavi etc, I have nothing significant to add beyond this.

Trust me, its not a good feeling to know that the candidate I voted for today is unlikely to get his deposit back. At the same time, I don’t want to be like one who votes for the ‘jeyikara katchi’. That’s dumb. The guy will lose deposit not because he’s bad but there are lot of other factors that influences the voter’s mind even without ‘500Rs + biriyani’ syndrome.

First, the voter slip was given by a leading political party at my place. The election officers insist on this slip to make their job easier. I did not carry it to the polling booth first but my mom was turned away because of this. I had to fetch it later.
As far as I know, only three parties were giving out this slip.

My mom who is obviously in her mid-fifties and not academically educated did not vote for the candidate we discussed yesterday. The reason was simple - she could not recall the guy’s symbol! It was hard for her to look out for a particular candidate among 43 candidates. So she instinctively chose the one from the top three in the list because she had to choose one, which incidentally is the party who gave the voter slip in our residence!

It kinda sucks to have 43 candidates contesting a single seat. I liked at least three of them but I could choose only one. I am sure none of the three will get their deposits back. One among the crooks will probably get through due to something similar to ‘brand recall’ (if my mom is any example) and we callously use this method to elect a representative to run a country with so many issues and complexities. We take pride in this system when we should be looking at ways to improve this.

So is there a better way? Apparently, that’s an interesting question.

Check out this Poundstone’s interview. He talks lot of greek and latin which i’d never understand - range voting, IVR, spoiler(Vijaykanth) effect blah blah. But the key takeway was something I knew all along - hotornot.com works well:)

It’s still hard to digest that the Chinese can build a world class car. But yeah stranger things have happened. Charlie Munger thinks this guy is a genius. I think Munger is a genius in his own right.

In India, somehow this whole ‘electric’ phenomneon has caught the fancy of only one Mr. Ratan Tata. But his company is in mountains of debt. The rest of the players (Mahindra, MUL and the likes) are not so keen, or so it seems.

I personally think reducing our dependency on oil augurs well and might help our fight against terrorism.

“Some of the (mis)influences are amusing, as in a case described by Cialdini. A physician left a written order for a nurse treating an earache, as follows: “Two drops, twice a day, ‘r.ear’”. The nurse then directed the patient to turn over and put the ear drops in his anus.”

- Charlie Munger in ‘Poor Charlie’s almanack’ when discussing Authority-(Mis)influence Tendency.

When nurses ask you to turn over, just be doubly sure you are doing for the right reasons.